Disease cluster investigation and prediction modelling

Authors: Aniset Kamanga, Harry Hamapumbu, Petros Moono, Janneke van Dijk, Sungano Mharakurwa, Phil Thuma, Timothy Shields, Gregory E. Glass,  Clive Shiff

Institution and Location: The Malaria Institute at Macha (MIAM), Choma, Zambia & Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.

Problem statement: Monitoring and tracking the progress of an endemic disease has always proved to be difficult especially in a situation where there is improper collection and management of data.

Objectives:
•    To establish a well documented geodatabase that will enable decision makers to choose the best options to combat an endemic disease.
•    To set up a disease progression monitoring system by combining geographic data (i.e. with elevation, vegetation, rivers, dams) with disease aggregate datasets (e.g. malaria, TB etc)

Methodology: In this particular study, malaria was considered for the case survey. Geographic coordinate locations of the entire population in the study area were obtained by use of a Garmin GPS unit. These points were plotted on the base map using GIS software known as Arcview. The information was further subjected to different overlay operations i.e. positive cases of malaria layers superimposed with other different layers. Some extensions to the base map were obtained by the method of digitizing satellite photo imageries.  In order to amplify a proper disease cluster investigation, a cohort research design study will have to be conducted.

Results: The derived information will be presented and will produce clear and unambiguous thematic maps, showing clustered malaria data with highlighted different features.

Conclusion: The complete dataset will provide evidence for policy and quality service delivery, presented in a vivid pictorial manner so that further decisions including future research, could be taken.

Funding Sources: Johns Hopkins Malaria Research Institute & Malaria Institute at Macha

AttachmentSize
Presentation- 4th National Health Research Conference 18th - 19th Jan 07.pdf736.5 KB